UFC Houston Predictions: Strickland vs. Hernandez Betting Picks

For the first time this year, the UFC Fight Night series hits the road, as UFC Houston takes place on February 21 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. It’s the UFC’s first visit to Texas since UFC 271 in February 2022, an event that saw Israel Adesanya defeat Robert Whittaker in a UFC middleweight championship rematch.

The middleweight scene, in fact, will be on display in the featured attraction of Saturday’s card. Former champion Sean Strickland and rising contender Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez will battle in the main event. This is Strickland’s first fight since losing a middleweight title rematch with Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 312 last year. Hernandez, meanwhile, has won eight straight, including wins over Brendan Allen and Roman Dolidze in 2025.

The co-main event will be a welterweight matchup between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic. Neal has lost three of his last four, most recently getting knocked out by Carlos Prates in highlight fashion at UFC 319. Medic has won three of four, coming into this bout off back-to-back first-round finishes of Gilbert Urbina and Muslim Salikhov.

The rest of the main card will feature featherweight action from Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa, a heavyweight bout between Serghei Spivac and Ante Delija, a welterweight showdown between Jacobe Smith and Josiah Harrell, and a middleweight matchup featuring Zachary Reese and Michel Pereira.

SEAN STRICKLAND VS ANTHONY HERNANDEZ

Strickland vs. Hernandez is a perfect fight for the division. For Strickland, this is an opportunity to prove he’s still among the best of the 185-pound fighters in the UFC. For Hernandez, this kind of fight probably earns him a title eliminator next. Some have questions about the fight history of each man, but this bout should prove where each fighter’s trajectory is.

What’s going to be most interesting is how this fight will be fought. “Fluffy” is an excellent grappler, and while Strickland has some solid ground work, he prefers to fight with his fists. That said, he has recently commented that he does plan to use his grappling in this fight to set a finish up. That said, Strickland is a tough, durable fighter, maybe too tough for “Fluffy” to finish. But Strickland only has one finish on his record since 2021.

This fight could go a number of ways, and it will be interesting to see how it goes.

BET: Strickland vs. Hernandez to go the distance (Draftkings & BetMGM: -145)

ANTE DELIJA VS SERGHEI SPIVAC

I told myself to not do heavyweight bets after the last two weeks, but hear me out. The line on Delija vs. Spivac is deceiving. I get both men are coming in off losses and the heavyweight division is questionable, but I think this reads into the fight too much.

Delija is the former PFL heavyweight champion with devastating power, along with strong footwork, a proven and capable kickboxer. That was on display with his knockout of Marcin Tybura, and he could have had a win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta had it not been for the nutty fight-ending sequence. Spivac is a great veteran, but he’s lost three of his last four – one of those being against the recently-released Jailton Almeida.

Spivac is going to need his Brazilian jiu-jitsu, as his best play is to score takedowns and make the fight go longer, testing Delija’s gas tank. If he can’t do that, this is Delija’s rebound performance.

BET: Delija to win (Moneyline) (Caesars: -130)

JEAN-PAUL LEBOSNOYANI VS PHIL ROWE

If you don’t know who Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is, you’re going to know after watching the UFC Houston prelims. This will be Lebosnoyani’s UFC debut after a highlight knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. On the regional scene, namely with the LFA, he’s been a proven finisher. He came into professional MMA with a solid grappling base, and now he’s worked into also being a dangerous striker.

Rowe is a UFC and submission grappling veteran who will try to provide a new level of competition for Lebosnoyani. But Lebosnoyani’s momentum, combined with weight issues for Rowe, means this should be an impressive UFC debut for JPL.

BET: Lebosnoyani vs. Rowe UNDER 2.5 rounds (Caesars: -141)